J-Box // POWER FIRSTFORT WORTH · TYLER, TX
Deal Structures

Why we never count a bid as a site under control, and why your pipeline math should not either

Reece Shaw3 min read

Plain answer. Megawatts under control means a site with documented control, a validated power position and a defined next gate. Not a bid, a conversation or a listing. Separating controlled sites from prospects is what lets capital partners and tenants make decisions on the number.

Everyone has a pipeline

Every company in this industry has a pipeline number, and most of them are large. The number usually includes every site the company has looked at, every landowner it has called and every bid it has submitted. It is a measure of activity. It is not a measure of capacity.

Capital partners and tenants know this, which is why they discount pipeline numbers heavily and why the companies with real positions get no credit for them. JBox decided early to count differently, and to say so.

Three tiers

TierWhat it meansWhat documents it
ProspectA site JBox is evaluating or bidding onA screen, a conversation, an active bid
Near controlA site where control is in process but not executedA pending LOI or PSA, a draft agreement, a verbal commitment
ControlledA site with documented control and a validated power basisAn executed LOI, PSA, option, lease or JV agreement, plus the utility position behind it

Only the third tier counts toward megawatts under control. The second tier is tracked internally as pipeline and is never presented as control. The first tier is work.

The rule inside the company

The internal rule is simple: do not mix an active bid with a site under control. Every site carries a control basis field, and no site moves between tiers without the document that justifies it. The rule exists because the number is only useful if it is credible to the people who make decisions on it: capital, tenants and suppliers.

The same rule governs the megawatts. Critical IT load is counted only where the load request has a documented basis. Sites with a load still to be determined stay in the count of sites but out of the count of megawatts until the basis is confirmed.

How the Proof page is built from this

The numbers JBox publishes, megawatts in development, megawatts completed, sites under control and regional distribution, come directly from the controlled tier. They are updated as projects move through the gates. They are shown as regions and totals, never as parcels or counterparties, because the clients and the sites are confidential. The number is public. The list is not.

Why most pipeline claims are unusable

A pipeline that mixes tiers cannot be underwritten. A lender cannot tell which megawatts have a utility position. A tenant cannot tell which sites could be energized on its timeline. A supplier cannot tell what to reserve capacity for. The number is large and it answers nothing.

A controlled number is smaller and answers everything, because every megawatt in it has a document, a power basis and a next gate.

What to ask any developer about their number

  1. What is your control basis for each site in that number, and can you show it under NDA?
  2. Which of those sites have a utility study, a will serve position or an interconnection agreement?
  3. What is the next gate on each, and who owns it?
  4. How many of those megawatts have a confirmed load basis, and how many are to be determined?
  5. When was the number last updated, and what moved?

A developer that can answer all five has a controlled pipeline. One that cannot has a list.

Questions & answers.

An executed LOI with the terms that establish control counts. A pending or draft LOI does not. The document, not the conversation, moves a site into the controlled tier.

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